Friday 5 October 2012

Lets hope for deadlock

Arguably the single most important question in the US presidential election is who is most likely to 'successfully' cut the deficit. I think Obama is because he will allow most tax cuts to expire to protect spending programmes, pushing the USA over the rightly-feared fiscal cliff. I believe Romney will maintain or even cut taxes and instead try to cut spending by cutting welfare spending. These cuts will be blocked by Democrats in the senate, who will insist instead on more cuts to defence and 'corporate welfare' spending. Compromise is unlikely and so the deficit will soar, which is exactly what is needed.

So it may be better for the US (and global) economy if Romney wins. It will be miserable for poor Americans and immigrants, and it won't be good for liberals, scientists, academics etc., but cutting the deficit will be disastrous for just about everyone as it will drag the US and the rest of the world into a deep recession with no end in site.

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