Wednesday 6 June 2012

Who will blink first?

There is a nerve-racking game of brinkmanship in the Eurozone. Spain's banks are insolvent. The Spanish government is determined not to pour money into them because that would hugely increase their budget deficit and debt. Spain would then be forced to seek a bailout from other Euro countries, who would require vicious cuts in spending and increases in taxes as a condition of the bailout. The end result would be the same economic misery and political turmoil in Spain as we seeing in Greece, with a real risk of violence and civil war. On the other hand, if the banks are not recapitalized there will probably be a bank panic, which could spread widely and do huge damage to all Euro countries and beyond. We are asking Spain to put a gun to their head and pull the trigger. Not surprisingly they are refusing. We urgently need a plan B.

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